Mainland, HK property 'retains allure'
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Real estate on the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong retains a strong long-term allure despite current fears of a damaging bubble, according to an influential player in the regional market.
Alastair Hughes, Asia-Pacific chief executive of Jones Lang LaSalle, a dominant presence in the Chinese property markets, sees plenty of reasons for optimism.
"For every expat who whinges about pollution, there are 20 people in London who'd like to be here," he told reporters in an interview, gesturing out across Hong Kong's famed skyline on a rare clear day in the city.
"I don't think you'd find many people who've made money betting against Hong Kong," Hughes said.
The market for luxury property in Shanghai and Beijing was seen as "a little bit frothy" because of wealthy individuals indulging in speculation, he said.
"On the other hand, you've got everywhere else in the Chinese mainland," he said, pointing to the annual migration of 50 million people from the Chinese countryside to cities in search of work and better housing.
As other parts of the world struggle out of recession, property markets on the mainland and Hong Kong have been charging ahead, so much so that the Central Government has taken increasingly aggressive steps to rein in the mainland market.
One analyst, Carol Wu of DBS Vickers Securities, predicts a 20-30 percent fall in prices for top-tier mainland housing and a 10-15 percent drop in the "second tier."
Nonetheless, Hughes says that not only is market "frothiness" confined to the swankiest neighborhoods, but that the commercial and office sector, where cooler heads prevail, is largely unaffected.
"It's really important to separate commercial from residential. The drivers for residential property are very much individually driven and there's more sentiment and emotion," he said.
"On the commercial property side it's a very professional market. People don't do things on a whim."
The International Monetary Fund appears to agree. In April it said that concerns about Asian property bubbles were "limited to some urban areas in China and high-end luxury segments in Hong Kong and Singapore," although it warned policymakers against complacency. That said, the Chinese mainland's market for commercial and office space doesn't always obey market forces.
Beijing office rents continue to rise despite high vacancy rates. Elsewhere, Shanghai office rents jumped 4.9 percent just in the first quarter, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
Growth ranges widely, from Shenzhen, where Goldman Sachs recently took up grade-A office space, to more modest rises deep in the interior, such as the southwestern city of Chengdu.
