By 2020, some 30 million Chinese men will find it well-nigh
impossible to find a bride as a result of a rising gender
imbalance, a report warned yesterday.
For every 100 baby girls born in 2005, there were 118.58 baby
boys, and the gap will continue to widen, said the report by the
State Population and Family Planning Commission.
In southern provinces such as Guangdong and Hainan, the picture
is grimmer: There are 130 baby boys for every 100 baby girls.
Since 2005, the number of men reaching marriage age has been
much more than women. "The increasing difficulties men face finding
wives may lead to social instability," said the report by more than
300 Chinese demographers after two years' research.
This is because Chinese traditionally prefer boys, and with
their financial status improved, those in the booming coastal areas
can afford to find out the sex of the foetus.
The picture will be starker in the countryside than in cities,
said the report.
To solve the problem, there must be a full-fledged social
security system so that rural residents don't have to depend on
their sons when they get old, said Wang Guangzhou, researcher at
the Institute of Population and Labour Economics affiliated to the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
According to the report, China's population will increase by 200
million in 30 years, which means the total population will hit 1.36
billion by 2010 and 1.45 billion by 2020 before peaking at 1.5
billion in 2033.
The figures are calculated on the assumption that China's birth
rate will be kept at the current 1.8 meaning one woman of
childbearing age giving birth to 1.8 babies. The country must
maintain the ratio if it wants to build itself into a well-off
society reaching the goal of US$3,000 per capita of GDP in 30
years, said the report.
The silver lining is that "for a long time to come, China will
not be short of manpower", it said. There were 860 million Chinese
of working age between 15 and 64 in 2000, and the number will reach
1.01 billion in 2016, which is "more than the total number of
working age people in all the developed countries".
(China Daily January 12, 2007)