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The US forces, gathering its sophisticated weapons and crack troops, has taken hold of almost the whole Fallujah city with overwhelming advantage through an ill balanced war, making the realization of a phase objective. However, what will the force-conquered Fallujah bring about?
First, this city may lead to a new political earthquake. Fallujah is a city where the Sunnis form the majority, among whom Allawi, a secular Shiite Muslim, enjoys no much authority. Meanwhile, Sunni religious leaders oppose military solution to the Fallujah issue by US armies. When the war against the city was launched, Sunni Muslim parties issued a statement calling for the coalition to stop attacking immediately, saying otherwise they will withdraw from the Iraqi interim government. The Association of Muslim Scholars, which is quite influential in Iraq, also warned in an announcement Iraqi troops not to take part in the US military operation in Fallujah. The Sunnis take quite a part of Iraqi population, and if they respond to their leaders' call by refusing to vote, they will certainly leave the legitimacy of the Iraqi general election suspect. So, from a political point of view, the war in Fallujah is likely to trigger more political troubles.
Second, the fight in Fallujah doesn't mean a fundamental turn of the US forces' situation in Iraq. On the contrary, once one Fallujah is taken, other "Fallujahs" will soon be prepared, waiting for a new round of rivalry with the coalition. Presently, Fallujah, among places of Sunni riots northwest of Baghdad, is not the only one to be put down before the general election in next February, and Ramadi, capital of Province Al-Anabr, also turns out a source of troubles. On November 12, situation in Iraq's third largest city Mosul worsened dramatically, and violence in other Sunnis gathered regions showed no sign of decreasing, with even a US "Black Hawk" helicopter shot down by ground fire. Baghdad, however, remains the most serious one. Just as an American military expert put it, the military operation in Fallujah is only a prologue to a political struggle led by Iraqi leaders, whose significance goes far beyond the gunfight itself.
More important, even the rapid and successful takeover of Fallujah bears no substantial meaning for US forces. The paramount US objective is to capture or eliminate No.1 enemy Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and to deal a deadly blow on anti-US militants. But signs showed that the biggest leader of them has fled. Although weakened, the anti-US militants are still existing somewhere, enriching their battling experience and waiting for a chance of stronger resistance.
Relying on the military strength of its army and the Iraqi interim government, the US is finally able to deter resistance in a short term by the seizure of Fallujah. But violence always invites more violence. The US troubles in Iraq will by no means disappear thereafter, while new questions, instead, will surely emerge one after another.
(People's Daily November 18, 2004)
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