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The decisions by Pakistan and India to expel each other's diplomats undermined a thaw in their relations, but were unlikely to derail the nuclear-armed rivals' two-and a-half-year-old peace dialogue, analysts said Sunday, a day after the tit-for-tat action.

Pakistan on Saturday expelled an Indian diplomat, accusing him of taking part in "undesirable activities" a euphemism for spying, and hours later India retaliated by ordering out a Pakistani diplomat on similar charges.

The two countries have often expelled each other's diplomats over spying allegations. But Saturday's expulsions the first since the two countries agreed in January 2004 to resume a dialogue aimed at ending their decades-old hostilities heightened fears that the peace process could be reversed.

Indian Foreign Ministry said the move would "undermine the bilateral relations between the two countries."

An Islamabad-based analyst warned that the expulsions would harm the peace process and revive hostility between Pakistan and India unless their leaders immediately spoke to each other.

"The political climate between the two countries will be further vitiated as it is coming on the heels of the Mumbai incident," said Talat Masood, a former Pakistan army general.

Tensions have eased since January 2004, but were ramped up again after last month's bombings on Mumbai's rail commuter network that killed 207 people.

Masood said the expulsions are eroding the trust that had been built by the peace process.

But G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian ambassador to Pakistan, said the expulsions were unlikely to upset momentum.

"It will muddy the water," Parthasarathy said. "It won't stall the (peace) talks."

Others agreed.

"I believe there is resilience in the composite dialogue process and the substance that has been added to it over the past two and half years," said C. Uday Bhaskar, a New Delhi-based strategic affairs expert. "I don't believe this is a permanent setback," he said.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947 after independence from Britain.

India said the Mumbai rail attackers had received support from across the border in Pakistan and postponed a round of peace talks. Pakistan denied it had aided the attackers.

The last diplomatic expulsions were ordered in 2003.

On Saturday, Pakistan ordered Deepak Kaul, an Indian visa official in Islamabad, to leave the country after he was "caught red-handed," with what a Pakistani official described as "sensitive documents." India responded hours later, expelling Mohammed Rafique, a political counselor at Pakistan's Embassy in New Delhi.

India also alleged that Kaul was handcuffed, blindfolded and taken to an undisclosed location where he was kept for about 5 hours, before he was handed over to Indian diplomats. Pakistan did not comment on the Indian allegations.

(China Daily August 7, 2006)