The primary in California could be pivotal for the current US
presidential campaign, as there are no clear front-runners so far
in both parties and candidates pay more attention to the state,
political analysts said Thursday.
California's primary will be held on Feb. 5, dubbed by some as
"Super Duper Tuesday" because nearly two dozen states will hold
primaries or caucuses on the same day, more on a single day than in
any previous national campaign.
With the recent close results in New Hampshire and Iowa leaving
both races still up for grabs, candidates are increasingly focusing
on the upcoming events, with California remaining the biggest
prize.
California has been traditionally seen as a nonfactor in the
presidential primaries because its primary was in June, long after
the party nominees had been virtually decided.
But even though several more states will have their own
primaries before Feb. 5, the rapid growth of voting by mail in
California means voters here have already begun making their
decisions before those other contests are even decided, according
to the Los Angeles newspaper Daily News.
A recent poll in California found that the race tightening on
the Democratic side, as New York Senator Hillary Clinton's former
lead of 25 percentage points over Senator Barack Obama now stands
at a 36-22 margin.
However, Clinton's surprising New Hampshire victory has
re-established her as the Democratic candidate to beat in
California, where she has led in polls and fundraising, said Jaime
Regalado, apolitical expert at California State University, Los
Angeles.
He said California is "one of the states deeply in Hillary's
pockets."
But Mark DiCamillo, director of the state's independent public
opinion survey service Field Poll, cautions that the Democratic
race in California might also be too close to call.
"Without any new California data, the best I can say is (the
race) is probably similar to national samples," said DiCamillo.
On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani
was leading in California with 25 percent, but former Arkansas
Governor Mike Huckabee had made rapid gains to maintain second
place with 17 percent.
And some said that Arizona Senator John McCain's New Hampshire
win makes him a big beneficiary in California, where his previous
poor showing in polls had strapped his campaign financially and
kept him from setting up a much-needed state operation.
Meanwhile, candidates from both parties have been scrambling to
beef up their grass-roots support in California, where past
candidates often visited early to raise funds from Hollywood and
Silicon Valley, but rarely paid attention to late in the
campaign.
(Xinhua News Agency January 11, 2008)
