Don't forget 'the forgotten phase' in Yushu
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A study of the aftermath of Japan's Hanjin-Awaji earthquake in 1995 gives some idea of what can happen in the forgotten phase. The economic livelihoods of the people in the earthquake zone improved rapidly in the two years after the disaster as the reconstruction efforts created employment. But then reconstruction tailed off, and so did employment. The income of the survivors began to decline, falling beneath pre-disaster levels. Only after 11 years did the incomes of the survivors reach their pre-disaster levels - by which time the rest of Japan had grown by another 17.5 percent. This left the disaster area even poorer than when the earthquake occurred.
The experience of Hanjin-Awaji confirms that the period when reconstruction is completed is of vital importance. If policy-makers conclude that the disaster zone is now back to normal and reduce their efforts, they will - without intending to - greatly increase the vulnerability of the survivors. If, on the other hand, they realize a lot must still be achieved, they can press on from the strong base created by the reconstruction effort, creating socio-economic opportunities for people in the disaster area.
Later, when Yushu's rescue phase is in the past, the area will be able to draw solace from the knowledge that the forgotten phase is not being forgotten in Wenchuan. China's authorities clearly understand that recovery requires more than reconstruction. They are maintaining their efforts to stimulate and consolidate Wenchuan's economic position, understanding it is the best way to mitigate the risk of any future disaster in the area.
The rescue phase in Yushu should be helped by the lessons learned in Wenchuan. When Yushu reaches what has, in the past, been the forgotten phase of recovery, it will again be helped by the experience that China is gaining in Wenchuan.
It is small comfort at this moment, but it will be helpful two years from now.
Graham Meadows is a special advisor to the European Commission and Michael Dunford is a visiting professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. They are both doing research in China on earthquake reconstruction.
