Easing tension on the Korean Peninsula
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North Korea has grabbed the spotlight again. The reverberations of the Cheonan incident and the US-South Korea joint military exercises haven't quieted yet, and former US president Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang has further stirred things. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-il made a surprise visit to northeast China, his second after his first visit in May. China's top negotiator, Wu Dawei, has spent the past weeks visiting South Korea and Japan. Although the public has different interpretations on these diplomatic activities, there's a consensus among them that all parties want to ease tension on the peninsula.
Carter's visit is interesting. It came as the situation intensified with South Korea and the U.S. staging military exercises in surrounding waters. In addition, as a former US president, Carter visited the North in 1994, which preceded the signing of US-North Korea Agreed Framework, which called upon Pyongyang to freeze operations and the construction of its nuclear reactors. Finally, after the Cheonan incident, the U.S. and South Korea linked the restart of the Six-Party talks to a resolution of the issue. While visiting China, Kim Jong-il has said he seeks an early resumption of the Six-Party Talks. The ball is now on the US side.
For the U.S., its contact with North Korea is a forced choice. North Korea has survived several decades under sanctions and pressure. The recent and current sanctions and isolation have failed to break the regime. Moreover, it has obtained nuclear power and the tension on the peninsula will likely speed up its dependence on that power. Thus, some voices from the U.S. advocate talks with the North in the hope of reaching denuclearization.
For North Korea, the release of the detained US citizen and Carter's visit are diplomatic measures of goodwill, which may ease tension and gain sympathy. Kim's two visits to China within a year have shown the special friendship between China and North Korea and have even strengthened China's role in mediation.
China has been a long-time advocate of peace and stability on the peninsula. Its diplomatic efforts such as Wu's recent visit to South Korea could help restore bilateral ties damaged by the Cheonan incident, and set a solid basis for the restart of the Six-Party Talks.
So far, there have been some positive signals. It's still a long road before substantial progress can be made on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Now the world waits for substantial steps from the U.S., and the two Koreas.
Dr. Yu Yinglin is a research fellow with Institute for Foreign Policy Studies of Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies(SIIS).
