Iran nuclear talks: interaction without communication
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There is no evidence that the two will be able to reach agreement on another pressing subject. In addition to its long term objective, the U.S. also wants to get most of the uranium that Iran has so far produced out of Iran's control through the fuel swap arrangement discussed in October and November of 2009. If the swap succeeds, the U.S. will be able to substantially reduce Iran's stocks of lower-level nuclear fuel. Since the swap is likely to lengthen the time Iran would need to make a nuclear bomb, the U.S. would have more time to pursue a longer-term resolution of the issue.
The swap deal was first proposed in a series of engagements between Iran, the U.S. and the six parties as a whole, in the second half of 2009, but stalled because of differences about the location, amount and stages of the swap. Iran independently signed a swap agreement with Turkey and Brazil on May 17, 2010, two weeks before the passing of UN Security Council resolution 1929, but the deal was not recognized by the U.S. or Europe.
Analysts believe that the new round of negotiations will restart where they left off last year. But the gap between the two sides will not be easily narrowed. As mentioned above, the real intention of the U.S. is to remove a significant chunk of Iran's nuclear fuel stocks so as to win more time for further bargaining. The implication is that it is not certain when the U.S. will return enriched uranium to Iran. For the U.S., the longer it can keep the fuel out of Iranian hands, the better the scenario from its point of view.
But the Iranians have said clearly that their stocks of higher-level enriched uranium for medical use will soon run out. In other words, Iran cannot afford to wait too long.
Judging by the gaps between the two sides, the U.S. and Iran are likely to treat the talks as a platform for expressing their own positions rather than an opportunity to seriously bargain with each other. It is hard to see how such an exchange of words can deliver real communication.
The year 2009 saw tension ease somewhat on the Iran nuclear issue. As part of his program of reconciliation with the Muslim world, Barack Obama and his team adopted policies that avoided direct and immediate conflict with Iran in the first year of his administration. But faced with increasing domestic pressure from the Republicans, it seems that Obama has not been able to maintain his stance of seeking reconciliation with Iran. In 2010 tensions rose somewhat, although this was not a linear process. We will have to wait and see how long the easing of tension exemplified by the coming Geneva talks will last.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn
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