Egypt's fortnight of uncertainty
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After two weeks of turmoil across Egypt, the United States, UK, and Europe have found themselves in deep, deep doo-doo in Cairo.
They fanned the flames of protest and rebellion on the Arab Street and demanded that President Hosni Mubarak depart immediately; now, with signs that Mubarak may indeed ride out the storm, they are scared stiff of what can emerge from the smoke left by the fires they stoked.
All along, the leading Western powers had estimated -- wrongly – that events in Tunisia, and subsequently in Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan and Yemen, would have had "a domino effect", resulting in toppling of successive regimes, starting with Mubarak.
They predicted the demise of and identified to fall -- in quick, successive order -- Egypt's Mubarak, Yemen's Saleh, Jordan's King Abdullah, Syria's al-Assad, Libya's Gadaffi, Sudan's Bashir and even the Saudi King.
They anxiously went head over heels to equalize the 2011 Arab Street protests with the 1989 events in Eastern and Central Europe that ended in the eventual collapse of the former Soviet Union and the vaunted "Fall of the Berlin Wall".
But those assessments all fell flat. Their wires were crossed; now they must return to the drawing board.
However, Egypt never was and is still no easy matter for the West.
Mubarak had been, for all of 30 years, the West's force for stability in the region: a bridge between the Israelis and Palestinians, mediator between the warring factions in Palestine and host of successive Arab summits addressing solutions to old and new conflicts.
Washington and London therefore walked a diplomatic tightrope -- a Catch 22 situation –as they considered their response to his sudden plight. They wanted to support their historical ally, but did not want to oppose those who opposed him on the Egyptian street.
But that was much easier said than done – and Egypt's figures well tell why.
With 87 million people -- the largest population in the Middle East, accounting for 30% of all Muslims in the region's 22 Arab countries – Egypt is also home to the Arab League and a lynchpin to much that's happening in the region.
Egypt also has key trade value to the West – especially the UK and the EU.
