Libya: Pandora's Box is open
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On March 30, as ground troops loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi drove rebel forces out of the key oil port of Ras Lanouf, US-UK-French-led coalition members began discussing how to arm opposition fighters. Under NATO'S powerful and continuous air strikes, Gaddafi's soldiers have retreated backwards.
From recent actions, the goal of coalition forces seems to be clear: to cripple Gaddafi's troops and overthrow his regime. It is also clear that coalition forces are trying to control the oil-producing region that Gaddafi and his supporters have relied on.
We must better understand the motives behind coalition involvement in the fighting. Similar to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Gaddafi has constantly adjusted his oil export policies in recent years, resulting in a big loss of the U.S. access to Libyan oil fields. Libya and the U.S. renegotiated a 1960s' agreement at the end of 2007, resulting in several billion dollars of additional cost to US oil firms for Libyan access. Moreover, the U.S. is very dissatisfied for failing to win bids in Libya in recent several years. Thus, ensuring rebel control of oil-producing areas is favorable to U.S. and its allies.
Furthermore, the opposition has said that in a post-Gaddafi era, favorable oil policies will be handed out to countries based on their level of support for the rebellion. If this promise holds true, we can clearly see NATO's strategic interest in the airstrikes.
If the current Libyan situation can't be resolved expeditiously, oil prices will not remain stable. A prolonged conflict will affect the economic development of oil importers including China, slow the global economic recovery, and could even deepen the economic crisis.
The coalition forces' military strength is powerful enough to beat the Gaddafi government. However, the question is whether the opposition can fight Gaddafi's forces in the capital city of Tripoli.
Benghazi, the rebels' base and the second largest city in Libya, is closest to the Europe in Africa and has become a transfer station for illegal African immigrants to Europe in the last 15 years. Snakeheads, stowaways and gangs are rampant in the city. Also, the city is home to organizations such as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which announced that it was joining Al-Qaida in 2007. These organizations' involvement rapidly pushed the Libyan peaceful uprising into an armed riot.
Although these groups may be able to temporarily unite together to fight Gaddafi, it's hard to tell if they would be capable of running the country effectively, let alone democratically. The France-supported rebel interim government and transitional national council have already revealed profound ideological and political differences in their management of the rebellion.
In this north African country made up of over a hundred tribes, there have never been modern state institutions. Gaddafi maintained the country's unification by reaching agreements with different tribes. Now, the divergence of opinions among tribes has turned into hatred and hostility, and the military intervention from the West has inflamed the situation into an Iraq-like war. It's probable that the dream of a democratic unified government will fail to become reality in post-Gaddafi times.
Despite the war coming to an end, a turbulent "Pandora's box" has been opened in Libya. Sadly, it may be a long time before the Libyan people are able to enjoy peace.
The author is a Paris correspondent of Shanghai-based Wen Hui Daily.
(This article was written in Chinese and translated by Zhou Jing.)
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