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Aging society not ailing society

By Lena Zhang: 0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Shanghai Daily, November 8, 2011

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Bursting at the seams [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]

The birth of the symbolic 7 billionth citizen of the world on October 31 has rekindled the debate on the validity of China's family planning policy, which some have claimed to be out-of-date in recent years.

The original policy was relaxed a while ago to allow couples, each from a one-child family, to have two children.

Now there seems pressure for further relaxation to include, in Shanghai's case, anyone who holds a local residence permit, in hopes of addressing the challenges of a rapidly aging population.

Supporters for an amended policy believe that a growing proportion of the elderly to the total population will suck resources, trigger a crisis in China's economy, and make our pension and health care system unsustainable in the long run, because in the past, the elderly generally worked less, saved less, and consumed more.

However, it's important to remember that their belief is largely based on three assumptions - that age-specific behavior will remain unchanged as the age structure evolves; that the higher cost for individual families as well as the society at large of bringing new citizens into the world will be negligible; and that the older generation will always be provided for by the younger generation.

First of all, these supporters might have overlooked the fact that the elderly are not only growing in numbers, but also have become substantially healthier and better educated.

If people advancing into their 60s and 70s are healthier and more cultured than preceding generations, the demands for health care will be less intense, and many will be able to work longer and contribute to the economy in a more productive way.

Although raising the retirement age has run into resistance in the past, pension reforms have nevertheless been pushed forward successfully in some aging European nations. And raising the retirement age appears to be gaining widespread popularity.

For example, individuals surveyed in Australia have expressed a desire to spend a similar proportion of their lives in retirement as life expectancy increases.

And workers beyond retirement age are already seen everywhere in China, often in part-time jobs.

Furthermore, increased life expectancy has historically been strongly associated with increased per capita income and a compression of morbidity, meaning that the burden of aging may not be as heavy as many people anticipate.

Secondly, in a nation that already has a teeming 1.37 billion people, any addition to that number should not be taken lightly. According to Reiner Klingholz, director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, the earth is definitely over-populated even today.

Although China has witnessed phenomenal social and economic progress in recent decades, the old tradition of revering big families hasn't changed as much. In an online survey carried out by the Shanghai Population and Family Planning Commission, more than 72 percent of local women wanted to have at least two children.

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