On Feb. 29, when the U.S. and North Korea announced the outcomes of the third round of meetings between them since last July, there seemed to be a slim hope of settling the North Korea nuclear crisis through peaceful diplomatic methods. North Korea offered to halt nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, as well as its uranium enrichment activities at its Yongbyon installations, and allow the return of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for verification. In return, the U.S. offered 240,000 tons of food and other measures to improve the relations between the two nations.

These outcomes were actually reached to "preserve regional stability". The Obama Administration is likely unwilling to make any significant moves in the short term, as the issue is by no means Obama's top priority on his foreign policy agenda. The U.S. is busy with its deployment of financial sanctions and oil embargo against Iran, another country embroiled in nuclear crisis. In a presidential election year, U.S. will prefer steadfastness rather than risk any potential crisis which could polarize voters. So the US will likely continue to abide by its "strategic patience" policy which has already been in place for three years.

On the part of North Korea, it's also vital to maintain the stability of the Korean Peninsula as new leader Kim Jong Un assumes control of the country since his father’s passing late last year. The country is eager to continue pursuing its objective of building a "strong and prosperous nation" in 2012. All countries involved in the Six-Party Talks hope that the Korean Peninsula can stay in peace as the year of 2012, especially since it is an election year for several of the participating nations. Although most stakeholders don't believe North Korea will return to the talks anytime soon, they don't want to see a crisis erupt in the region.

However, the world was quite soon surprised again by North Korea's announcement that it would launch another earth observation satellite, Kwangmyongsong-3, in April to mark the 100th anniversary of state patriarch Kim Il Sung's birth. The message drew serious condemnation from the international community, including the U.S., Japan and South Korea. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said that North Korea's move was highly provocative and would put the U.S. food aid plan on hold.

In 2009, newly-elected U.S. President Barack Obama, in an effort to change the U.S. policy on nuclear non-proliferation, called on countries like Iran to unclench their fist, and under this condition, the United States was willing to "extend a hand". This diplomatic stance opened the possibility for resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue through negotiations. However, those hopes dimmed when the country launched its "Kwangmyongsong-2" satellite in April and carried out its second nuclear test in May that year.

The North Korea nuclear issue, which has been hotly debated during the last 20 years, has taught the stakeholders many lessons. The most valuable one they learned from this stop-and-start process is that they should remain optimistic but be reserved in their actions. During the course of negotiations, occasional glimmers of hope of a settlement have faded each time — from the ice-breaking exchange visits between the U.S. and North Korea at the end of the Clinton Administration, to the 2006 joint declaration in which North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear programs, to North Korea's promising of disabling and declaring its nuclear facilities in 2007.

Another lesson learned is that the stakeholders must be ready to embrace shocks. In Sept. 2007, the two countries reached consensus on North Korea's nuclear facility declaration. Later in June 2008, North Korea blew up the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear installations to show its determination to dismantle nuclear programs. Then in Oct. 2008, the U.S delisted North Korea from its list of nations that sponsor terrorism. However, these pleasant surprises were usually interwoven with shocking setbacks. U.S. pressure led to the freezing of North Korean deposits in Banco Delta Asia (BDA) in Macao in 2005. North Korea launched a satellite and carried out a second nuclear test in the first half of 2009. Then in 2010, the North's alleged sinking of the South Korean navy ship Cheonan and its launching bombardment of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island shocked the world.

The evolution of North Korea nuclear issue keeps reminding all people who are concerned that "the devil is in the details", as the outcomes of the third round of meetings between the two countries are outlined in obscure language which lead to extensive interpretations. For instance, North Korea promised to suspend its nuclear and missile tests, but it's not clearly stated how to define the differences between satellite carriers and long-range missiles. The UN Security Council ordered that North Korea to suspend ballistic missile-related activities of any kind in Resolutions 1695 and 1718, and banned North Korea from ballistic missile launches in Resolution 1874.

North Korea also allowed the return of the IAEA inspectors, but what kind of verifications can be accepted by both sides? It's worrying that absence of specific agreements may lead to ambiguity, contradictions and new conflicts, considering that the first North Korea nuclear crisis arose from the divergences on the verification scope.

It's also uncertain whether or not the US believes that North Korea only owns one uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon. Last, but not least, when the U.S. inspectors enter North Korea for supervision on the distribution of food aid, will North Korea feel uncomfortable about their activities?

These outcomes are just the very first step on this arduous long march towards the restart of the US-North Korea relations.

It's unlikely that the diplomatic gaming on North Korea's new satellite launching plan will end peacefully, considering that any concession from Obama on the North Korean nuclear issue will give fuel to his Republican opponents for the 2012 race. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council will probably denounce North Korea again as it did in 2009. As a result, it's possible that the outcomes could come to nothing, and North Korea nuclear issue will go around again in new vicious circle. It seems that the two sides attempted to have a fresh start in this round of negotiations, but still ended up going on their own ways as in the past.

The overly aggressive attitudes of the U.S. and North Korea in the past brought nothing more than a lose-lose situation. Therefore, it's much better for the two sides to be cautious in their words and actions to prevent a future crisis. The entire international community must bear the consequences of rash, reckless and willful acts by either side. It should always be remembered that prudence and restraint are the greatest virtues in international politics.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://m.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/fanjishe.htm

This article was first written in Chinese and translated by Zhang Junmian.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.

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