The dilemma of Thailand's political turbulence
- By Zhou Shixin
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E-mail China.org.cn, December 24, 2013
The royal family and military have been watching and waiting for Yingluck's mistakes. They won't participate in the political process bluntly, but hope to keep the potential of decisive influence on the process, to maintain their authority and interests. However, the inertia of this thinking is weakening. If not as a last resort, the royal family and the military will not impede or even reverse the democratic political process, risking being accused by the international community.
The asset of the Thai "Yellow Shirts," which represent the interests of the Democratic Party, is not the ballot, but rather their existing power and the wealth of the country. On behalf of Thailand's traditional power, the Democratic Party stands for the interests of Thailand's financial capitalists and the urban middle class. It is smaller in number, but stronger in terms of its ability to mobilize, and it has a closer relationship with the royal family and the military.
However, Thailand's ballot is in the hands of the lower class where there are more people in the countryside. The emerging political and economic interest groups, with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as the representative, hope to play a greater role in Thailand with the growth of their wealth. They try to seize and hold power by taking advantage of the ballot distribution status. They have implemented many policies which benefit the lower classes, attempting to win more votes. This model of redistributing national wealth by use of power will inevitably segment power and interests of the traditional power. It is very hard for the two sides to avoid a struggle.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the Thai political unrest originates from a misplacement of power, wealth and ballots. This is quite different from many other Southeast Asian countries where the political and economic elite still holds the country's power and authority. The Democrat Party came to power by avoiding the ballot plight last time. It maintained the ruling position to the end by avoiding the embarrassment of dislocating power and ballot. Therefore, Yingluck's Pheu Thai Party is very careful and has wisely chosen a strategy of not directly offending the royal family and the military, in fear of being deprived of political legitimacy, which is why the opposition organizes the anti-government demonstration in so large scale.
The future of Thai politics may lie in the mutual compromise of power, wealth and the ballot; otherwise the cost of this process will be larger. Thai democracy should not be a chronic illness, a maze without a way out. All the parties need to gradually adapt to each other and change their policies accordingly. In other words, the Democratic Party needs to recognize a proper transfer and redistribution of state power and wealth in line with the long-term stability and development of the country, learning to meet the interests and needs of the lower class. The Pheu Thai Party also needs to communicate with the Democratic Party, and make some moderate concessions.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn For more information please visit http://m.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/zhoushixin.htm
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