Turkey turns a page of history
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 19, 2017
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes statements in Istanbul, Turkey, on April 16, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] |
While the U.K. Brexit vote was about taking back control from an increasingly centralized Brussels, this vote was about centralizing power under Erdogan. Other political parties want to challenge the result, but the Turkish president's supporters say that replacing a Parliamentary system with a Presidential one would modernize and fast track the Turkish system. Previously, the Italian referendum under Matteo Renzi was done on a similar idea, however Renzi failed, and was forced to resign.
For the first time in the country's history, the President will hold all the executive power, which will include, as the Guardian reported, the hiring and firing of judges and prosecutors, appointing the cabinet, abolishing the post of Prime Minister and making separation of powers – not just between the different branches – but between the state and religion extinct.
In a modern version of a Caliphate, parliamentary scrutiny would be nonexistent as well. Erdogan, like Putin, would be able to run directly for a third term, should he so choose, which will keep him in power for over a combined total of 30 years.
This was inevitable, and was surprising it took such a long time. When Erdogan came to power, the AKP made clear that he is not satisfied with the direction of Modern Turkey, which was established by Ataturk in 1921. In one of his famous early quotes, he said that one cannot be a secular and a Muslim.
Nonetheless, in his early days he wanted to have a problem free foreign policy with neighbors. Whether it was rhetorical or opportunistic we will never know, but the fact remains that he wasn't happy with the secular liberal character of Turkey for the last hundred years and longed for the lost glory of Ottoman hegemony. The opportunity rose with the onset of the Arab Spring, when Erdogan positioned himself on the side of the Gulf countries pushing for regime change in Middle East and North Africa, and persuaded the West to back him as well.
Erdogan also positioned himself as invaluable to Europe because Turkey was a launch pad of refugees. In a controversial statement recently he stated that the Turks need to have more babies in Europe as they will be the future of the EU. These are provocative statements and make him a despised despot within the ultra-conservative Central and Eastern block of EU.
But the EU needs Erdogan because of a simple fact: Erdogan is part of NATO. And if he genuinely wants to flood EU with refugees, there is literally no way to stop the flow other than going to war with Turkey. It's a Catch 22 situation, and Europe is increasingly helpless to deal with him, and has no other way of dealing with him than to come to a deal. It is not Russia who has Europe in their grip, but it is Turkey.
The optimism in Europe is dying of course. There was a time when Turkey was talking with EU about being members, that is dead. Also, dead is the chance of Turkey being a benign and genuinely neutral actor in Middle East. The optimism is replaced by a cynical acceptance that Turkey is increasingly authoritarian, and will have to be tolerated.
Unfortunately the global situation changes very quickly. Turkey is not outside the international system, and the Turkish economy is heavily dependent on Europe. With the growing Christian conservatism within Europe, there's a chance that if not today, tomorrow, there will be a reactionary backlash.
The Eastern part of Europe has traditionally been the most violent place in the planet for over two thousand years, and it is unlikely they will accept a neo-revanchist Turkish hegemony in the east. If EU doesn't deal with Turkey, those states will seek some other powers to balance, notably Russia. One thing is for certain, that the death of secular liberal Turkey is not hyperbole.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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