Coming Asian war on terror and a growing SCO
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 10, 2017
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Chinese President Xi Jinping (3rd L) attends the welcoming ceremony hosted by his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev before their talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, June 8, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] |
The Manchester and London attacks weren't even day-old news when stories of ISIS flags flying over the Philippines were pouring in, along with churches burnt, and government offices seized as Maute, a militant group pledging allegiance to ISIS took control of the town center randomly killing men, women and children.
The Jihadists then spread and dispersed, in classic urban warfare tactics, to different buildings, bridges, hospitals and jails, essentially making the entire city of Marawi a giant booby trap. Police officers were beheaded in public, according to Reuters.
"If I think you should die, you will die. If you fight us, you will die. If there's an open defiance, you will die," President Duterte was quoted as saying. "And, if it means many people dying, so be it."
Not exactly Churchillian in its circumlocution, but the sentiment is admirable. Wars are not won by weakness. There maybe a number of reasons to criticize Duterte, but his instinct to impose law and order in a breakaway anarchic Islamist province is not one of them. It is the primary duty of every government, to provide security to its citizens.
Duterte's instincts are at least right on the money there, compared to almost every Western European government. Liberalism is usually a counter-terrorism liability, as Max Abrahams wrote, a sentiment reflecting the current hardening Western resolve as well.
However, the real geopolitical backdrop to what is happening is the next Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, with India and Pakistan joining as full members. In a classic bandwagon development, both parties have signed the 30-odd papers required.
India's goal is different from Pakistan's of course. India eyes Central Asia, and wants this forum to be a platform for its own power play needs; meanwhile Pakistan wants it to be a forum for regional grievances to be discussed. There is talk of Iran joining in future as well, with Russia backing it.
China has warned that all members must show a neighborly spirit. Both Beijing and Moscow realize an Indian Pakistani détente is essential and the SCO might assist in providing the necessary platform. The geopolitical impact is huge. By sheer numbers, it adds another 1.5 billion people, and represents half of humanity and more than 25 percent of global GDP.
The question that needs to be urgently raised will be about Islamism in Asia, and the changing dynamics of the region. Indonesia, long touted as a bastion of moderate Islam, has over 500 citizens fighting in Syria, and is slowly turning radical. The recent charge of blasphemy against an ethnic Chinese politician in Indonesia should sound alarm bells across the region. But is it? My answer would be: unfortunately not. As the great powers of the region keep balancing each other in high seas, a far greater and more immediate social menace is attempting to destabilize the entire region.
Consider this: What if entire regions in Indonesia and Philippines fall to ISIS? Who would intervene to maintain stability? Will it be China or U.S.? Will it be SCO? Or NATO? If U.S. wants to intervene, right in China's backyard, how would the security dilemma stand in such circumstances?
If China intervenes, does that mean it plans to share the security burden of Asia? There are other more fundamental questions to be answered. What would be the implications for the vital trade routes crossing the region, and the Belt and Road Initiative? What links would the Islamist militants have with militants all around Asia, including within China?
There's a fundamental misunderstanding and instinctive reaction to deal with crises like these, as lone wolf or isolated attacks. That is flawed. The history of humanity teaches us that any rabid poisonous ideology need not be coordinated in a highly centralized global force. It can still fester like individual organic cancerous wounds.
During the 1930s, Hitler didn't coordinate a global fascist movements. Nonetheless, there were hundreds of fascist wannabes who worshipped Hitler all across the globe. Similarly, not every attack needs to be actually coordinated with ISIS headquarters in Raqqa. There will be loads of people inspired by this ideology all around the globe, finding common cause to this abhorrent cult.
Add to this Saudi-funded Wahhabi mosques and preachers, and suit-wearing apologists on television talk shows blaming this on everything else other than religion, and you get a perfect storm.
It's a matter of time, this will spread across Asia. SCO can provide a start of a valuable platform to decide, how Asian powers want to tackle Asia's biggest problem in the future.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://m.keyanhelp.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
