| The largest nation in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has had fast economic development, stable political evolvement and successful diplomatic relations in the past decade. Although the so-called fourth great power in Asia is playing a more and more important role in international organizations, like the G-20, it has to succeed in leading ASEAN first, in which Myanmar becomes a thorny issue.
Generally speaking, Indonesia wants a stable Myanmar to demonstrate its political soft power, strengthen trade links and promote regional cooperation. Politically, Indonesia is one of the successful democratic countries of the world, which Indonesians are proud of and want very much to set an example to Southeast Asia. But Myanmar now is trapped in a democratic dilemma. On one hand, Myanmar's junta government has convened a national convention to draw up a new constitution as part of its "roadmap to democracy," trying to legitimize its administration and show Myanmar-style democracy with a general election later this year. But on the other hand, the largest opposition party, the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi, is purposely barred to ensure the success of the present government in the election.
Some countries in the region have chosen to be indifferent toward Myanmar's democratization, but Indonesia can't afford to ignore this problem because it has been frustrated that years of attempts to engage Myanmar diplomatically have borne little fruit. Former Foreign Minister Nur Hassan Wirajuda said, "We have to be pro-active. Indonesia wishes to see a more credible process in the implementation of Myanmar's roadmap to democracy." For Indonesia, helping to facilitate the democratic process in Southeast Asia, particularly in an authoritarian country like Myanmar, is to demonstrate its soft power politically, which is considered Indonesia's capital to lead ASEAN.
Economically, Indonesia is Myanmar's fourth largest trading partner among members of ASEAN, after Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Their economies are complementary. Indonesia exported to Myanmar palm oil, vegetable oil, newsprint paper, chemical products, machinery and spare parts, materials in producing medicines, plastics, copper and steel, tyre and water pipe, while importing from Myanmar beans and pulses, onions and marine products. In 2008 to 2009, trade between the two countries hit US$238 million, of which Myanmar's export amounted to US$28 million. Meanwhile Indonesia also ranked ninth among Myanmar's foreign investors with US$241 million – 1.5 percent of the country's foreign investment.
But the two countries have no direct banking link or air link. Indonesia and Myanmar have to trade through Malaysia and carry out banking transactions through Singapore. The lack of direct links impedes not only trade and economic cooperation, but cultural exchange. For instance, there is weak tourism between Myanmar and Indonesia. In 2008, the number of Myanmar who visited Indonesia was only 2,500. To strengthen economic and cultural relations, it is urgent for both countries to establish various links directly, but the prerequisite is the stability of Myanmar.
In regional cooperation, Indonesia expects a united ASEAN. If Myanmar is always lagging behind in reforms, it will do more harm than good to the cooperation. In recent years, major powers in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand and Malaysia, are to some extent in political turbulence. Only Indonesia can be eligible to play a leading role in ASEAN, although leadership is quite sensitive for the organization. Therefore, stability in Myanmar benefits Indonesia and ASEAN.
But so far Myanmar's political modernization has been far from satisfactory. Neither diplomacy nor sanctions have brought changes. Indonesia has no option but to resort to the great powers in the region to ensure stability and change in Myanmar. Wirajuda said, "It is important to continue to engage Myanmar with the help of regional powers such as China and India."
Luo Yongkun is a researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. |
