The unfinished war game in Iraq
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Even seven years after the US-led invasion, the situation in Iraq is far from stable. Sunday's parliamentary election, the second since the US invasion, was marred by factional feud and bloody violence. About 40 people were killed and 90 injured in Baghdad alone. So palpable was the fear in the capital that the authorities had to impose a curfew to ensure safe transportation of ballots from polling centers to the main counting office.
The election was originally scheduled for late last year and then Jan 21. Finally on Sunday, millions of Iraqis voted to elect 325 members to the parliament from among more than 6,000 candidates representing 86 political parties.
Factional strife among Shi'ite groups and Al-Qaida's presence caused widespread violence during the election. That's all the more reason why election results will decide the stability of Iraqi politics and the veracity of US President Barack Obama's pledge to pull out of the country by the end of 2011.
The US invasion has disturbed the power balance among Iraq's political groups. Shi'ites and Kurds may be cooperating with the US to attack Sunni groups, who were the main supporters of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, but not all Shi'ites are friendly toward the US.
For example, Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army has close connections with Iran. Armed Kurds, occupying three provinces in northern Iraq, are divided over sharing power with local Arabs in the oil-rich Kirkuk region.
The Sunnis have felt lost after Saddam Hussein was overthrown, though their anti-US sentiments has weakened after the George W. Bush administration changed its policy from coercion to conciliation toward them.
The conflicts among the Sunnis, Shi'ites (religious sects) and the Kurds (ethnic group) are most complicated. All three are trying to reach a position from where they can exploit the situation to their maximum advantage after the US pulls out.
According to Obama's plan, US troops were to withdraw from Iraqi cities and towns by June 2009. And the main combat forces would withdraw in August this year, leaving 35,000 to 50,000 American soldiers to train local forces and fight terrorists until they, too, pull out by the end of 2011.
The Bush administration increased the number of US troops in 2007 to 170,000. The number has now been cut to less than 100,000, and the US ambassador to Iraq has said another 50,000 troops would pull out by the end of August. The move not only conforms to the majority of Americans' demand, but also would divert US focus and troops to Afghanistan.
The US has lost fewer troops after it pulled them out of Iraq's cities and towns. In fact, December 2009 was the first death-free month for US troops in Iraq since the invasion. But there seems to be little let-up in violence. And though the frequency has reduced, the scale of devastation has become larger.
The fear now is that once the US troops pull out, the security situation in Iraq could deteriorate. But the Obama administration has to balance between the stability of Iraq, its finances and public sentiment after spending $700 billion and losing 4,373 soldiers in the Iraq War.
The problem with Iraq now, however, is not restricted to the Iraqis and the Americans. All neighboring countries have interest in Iraq's factional feud. Shi'ite-majority Iran will probably use the sectarian factor to resist America's pressure on its nuclear program. The Sunni-majority Arab world, worried by the marginalization of Sunnis in Iraq, may come to their help.
Then there is the anti-government Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which treats northern Iraq as power center, even though it is based in Turkey. Hence, Turkey fears that Iraqi Kurds could gain enough strength after the US pullout to support the PKK to strengthen its demand for a Kurdish homeland comprising Turkish and Iraqi territories. And since Syria is closely related with Iraqi Sunnis, it could exert pressure on Iran if and when necessary to extract its demands.
Seven years of war has crippled Iraq and it cannot tackle all these problems simultaneously.
In fact, its main problem at present is reconstruction, which the Iraqi government has said would cost at least $400 billion. And the most crucial factor in Iraq's reconstruction is its oil exports.
Foreign companies did flock to Iraq, which has the world's third largest oil reserve, after the government invited bids from abroad twice in 2009.
That raised Iraq's daily oil exports from 950,000 barrels in November 2009 to 1.97 million barrels in December.
The Iraqi government plans to increase the oil production from the current 2.5 million day to 12 million a day in six years.
But security is the greatest prerequisite for that. And to ensure security and restore Iraq's social and political order, three conditions have to be met: Baghdad has to have a strong government that, among other things, can maintain balance of power among all the factions; the US has to help maintain order in the country without any ulterior motive, and all neighboring countries have to make sincere efforts to make Iraq a stable country.
All this is a tall order.
