李克強(qiáng)在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢報(bào)告（全文）
Li Keqiang's report on the economic situation at the 16th National Congress of ACFTU
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| 10月21日，中共中央政治局常委、國務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)應(yīng)邀在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上作經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢報(bào)告。[新華社 姚大偉 攝] Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (front, C) gives a speech about economic situation at the 16th national congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions in Beijing, capital of China, Oct. 21, 2013. [Yao Dawei/Xinhua] |
![10月21日，中共中央政治局常委、國務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)應(yīng)邀在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上作經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢報(bào)告。[新華社 姚大偉 攝]](http://images.china.cn/attachement/jpg/site1007/20131113/001ec949ff5c13ed172d02.jpg "10月21日，中共中央政治局常委、國務(wù)院總理李克強(qiáng)應(yīng)邀在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上作經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢報(bào)告。[新華社 姚大偉 攝]")
| 二、我國經(jīng)濟(jì)中長期發(fā)展的趨勢 | Second, medium and long-term trends in the Chinese economy |
| 改革開放30多年來，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)年均增長9.8%，可以說是奇跡。但是到了目前這個階段，如果依然過度依賴投資，能源、資源、環(huán)境的瓶頸制約會越來越明顯，高速增長靠高投入、高能耗，難以為繼了。另外也要看到，我們的成本競爭優(yōu)勢相對在減弱。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的目的還是要改善人民生活，最終要提高人民生活水平和質(zhì)量，所以提高工資是必然的。不光是人力成本，土地各方面的成本也在增加。還要看到，我們現(xiàn)在的基數(shù)也比較高了，去年GDP達(dá)到52萬億人民幣，在這個基礎(chǔ)上增長1%，和GDP在10萬億、5萬億人民幣基礎(chǔ)上增長1%，那差別就大得多。 | After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has grown at an annual rate of 9.8 percent. This is a miracle. But given the status quo, if China's economy continues to rely principally on investment, then there will be more bottlenecks in energy, resources and the environment. It will be difficult to continue with the high investment and high energy consumption model. It is also worth noting that China's competitive advantage of low costs is also diminishing. The aim of economic growth is to improve people's lives and ultimately advance their living standards. It is therefore necessary to increase people's salaries. As well as human costs, the cost of land and other factors is also increasing. China's GDP is now on a higher level. There is a huge difference between increasing 1 percent of China's GDP based on last year's 52 trillion yuan and that based on 5 or 10 trillion yuan. |
| 作為我們這樣一個中等收入國家，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長已從原來的高速進(jìn)入到了中高速階段。什么叫中高速？我認(rèn)為，7.5%左右，或者7%以上就是中高速。所謂“中”是和我們過去比較。過去是兩位數(shù)增長，平均是9.8%。7%以上、7.5%左右就算中速了；但是在世界范圍內(nèi)，我們?nèi)匀皇歉咚?。特別是在大國中，沒有哪個國家有我們這樣高的速度。而且我們測算，到2020年實(shí)現(xiàn)全面建成小康社會，年均增長速度只要7%就夠了。這樣，有利于各方面用更多的精力來調(diào)整結(jié)構(gòu)，消化過剩產(chǎn)能，加強(qiáng)節(jié)能環(huán)保，提高質(zhì)量，保護(hù)環(huán)境，留出可持續(xù)發(fā)展空間。要看到，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)是有條件長期增長、持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的，因?yàn)槲覀儺吘惯€處于工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展過程當(dāng)中。我們現(xiàn)在的城鎮(zhèn)化率，說是52%，那是加上半年及以上常住人口，戶籍人口城鎮(zhèn)化率不到35%。和發(fā)達(dá)國家比，和同水平的發(fā)展中國家比，我們還低了不少，這本身也說明我們有潛力。不光是城鄉(xiāng)差距，東中西部發(fā)展也還有很大差距。我們現(xiàn)在全國人均GDP是6000美元，東部一些地區(qū)上萬美元了，可是我們西部地區(qū)才3000美元。差距就是潛力。更重要的是，我們改革有巨大的紅利。30多年的改革開放，使我們?nèi)〉昧司薮蟮某删汀８母餂]有止境，我們要下決心推動全面改革，用壯士斷腕的精神來推進(jìn)改革。包括財(cái)政公開預(yù)算、削減“三公經(jīng)費(fèi)”，包括金融改革，推動利率市場化，讓小微企業(yè)能夠更有效、比較低成本地貸到款，等等，這些改革我們都是要推進(jìn)的。當(dāng)然，改革是要觸動利益的，但是改革是為了人民的利益，為了億萬職工都能過上好日子，沒有什么比這個利益更大，為此必須義無反顧。 | As a middle-income nation, China's economic growth has gone from medium to high speed. What does this mean? I think that a 7.5 percent or above 7 percent increase is medium speed. We call it "medium" in comparison with China's past economic growth. The economy has maintained double-digit growth for years, averaging at 9.8 percent, so it is medium growth in comparison with this. But in comparison with other countries, it is still high-speed growth, especially for a large country. We have estimated that an annual growth of 7 percent will enable us to build a moderately prosperous society by 2020. This growth will help every sector to adjust structures, handle over-capacity, strengthen energy conservation and environmental protection, enhance economic quality, and leave more room for sustainable development. China has great potential for long-term, sustainable and sound economic growth, as we are still in the process of industrialization and urbanization. China's urbanization rate is 52 percent, but that includes residents who have lived in the urban areas for more than half a year. The registered urban population is less than 35 percent, much less than that of developed countries and developing countries which are at similar level to China. But this indicates potential on our part. As well as the urban-rural gap, there is also a huge disparity among China's eastern, middle and western regions. China's per capita GDP is US$6,000 on average: it is more than US$10,000 in some areas of eastern China while it is only US$3,000 in western China. The indeed signifies potential. More importantly, we have a huge dividend from reform. The achievements we have made in the past three decades can be attributed to our reform and opening-up. There is no limit to reform. We are resolved to reform comprehensively and to promote it with the determination of a warrior cutting one's own wrist. The reforms include disclosing our fiscal budget, cutting down public expenses, financial reforms including liberalizing interest rates, making loans more available for small and micro businesses and lowering costs. Of course reforms will intrude on vested interest. But since reform is aimed at the people's interest, and there is no bigger interest than that of improving the lives of tens of millions of workers, so we must proceed without hesitation. |
| 必須強(qiáng)調(diào)，我們未來前進(jìn)路上還面臨很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和挑戰(zhàn)。像財(cái)政、金融的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，還有產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)依然薄弱，資源環(huán)境約束的矛盾加劇，科技創(chuàng)新能力總體上還不強(qiáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨后起國家追趕和發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技上占優(yōu)勢“兩面夾擊”壓力，等等。要實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展很不容易，我們一定要居安思危，增強(qiáng)憂患意識，做好應(yīng)對復(fù)雜困難局面的準(zhǔn)備。如何化解存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)挑戰(zhàn)，需要有勇氣和智慧，需要大家齊心協(xié)力，同心同德。我們會有陣痛，但是要相信，13億中國人、億萬中國職工要實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化、過上好日子的意志是不可動搖的。我們有這個力量。 | I want to emphasize that there are many risks and challenges on the road ahead, such as fiscal and financial risks, the irrational industrial structure, weak agricultural foundation, resources and environmental constraints, and weak technical innovation. Emerging economies are catching up with us and developed countries have advanced economies and technology. These two aspects are squeezing our economic development from two sides. It is not easy to maintain sustained and healthy economic growth. We must think of adversity in times of prosperity, become more aware of hidden risks, and prepare well for a complicated and difficult situation. To deal with these risks and challenges, we need courage and wisdom, to make a concerted effort, and be of one mind. There will be pain, but we must believe that if 1.3 billion Chinese people including millions of Chinese workers are going to modernize the country, and live good lives, then our will must be unshakeable. We possess this strength. |
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