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2015年國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展計劃報告(全文)
Full text:
Report on China's economic, social development plan (2015)

 
Comment(s)打印 E-mail China.org.cn 2015-03-26
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二、2015年經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的總體要求、主要目標(biāo)和政策取向II. General Requirements and Major Targets and Policies for Economic and Social Development in 2015
2015年是全面深化改革的關(guān)鍵之年,是全面推進依法治國的開局之年,也是全面完成“十二五”規(guī)劃的收官之年。2015年經(jīng)濟工作,要全面貫徹黨的十八大和十八屆三中、四中全會精神,以鄧小平理論、“三個代表”重要思想、科學(xué)發(fā)展觀為指導(dǎo),全面貫徹落實習(xí)近平總書記系列重要講話精神,堅持穩(wěn)中求進工作總基調(diào),堅持以提高經(jīng)濟發(fā)展質(zhì)量和效益為中心,主動適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài),保持經(jīng)濟運行在合理區(qū)間,把轉(zhuǎn)方式調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)放到更加重要位置,狠抓改革攻堅,突出創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動,強化風(fēng)險防控,加強民生保障,促進經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展和社會和諧穩(wěn)定。2015 is a crucial year for comprehensively deepening reform, the first year for comprehensively advancing the law-based governance of the country, and the final year for completing the tasks set out in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In carrying out our economic work in 2015, we must comprehensively implement the guidelines of the 18th National Party Congress and the third and fourth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee; take as our guide Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development; and fully implement the guiding principles from General Secretary Xi Jinping's major speeches. We must adhere to the general principle of making progress while ensuring stability; stay centered on improving the quality and performance of economic development; proactively adapt to the new normal in China's economic growth; keep the economy performing within an appropriate range; and give high priority to transforming the growth model and making structural adjustments. We must also tackle hard problems in reform; highlight the importance of innovation as a force to drive development; strengthen risk prevention and control; work harder to ensure people's wellbeing; and strive for sound and steady economic development as well as social harmony and stability.
堅持穩(wěn)中求進工作總基調(diào),“穩(wěn)”的重點放在穩(wěn)住經(jīng)濟運行上,確保增長、就業(yè)、物價不出現(xiàn)大的波動,確保金融不出現(xiàn)區(qū)域性系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險。“進”的重點放在調(diào)整經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)和深化改革開放上,確保轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式和創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動發(fā)展取得新成效。按照上述要求,并與“十二五”目標(biāo)相銜接,提出2015年經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的主要預(yù)期目標(biāo):

We will adhere to the general principle of making progress while ensuring stability. The focus of our efforts to ensure stability will be placed on keeping economic performance stable, making sure that there are no major fluctuations in growth, employment, and prices, and precluding the emergence of regional and systemic financial risks. The focus of our efforts in making progress will be put on making economic structural adjustments and deepening reform and opening up to ensure that achievements are made in transforming the growth model and promoting innovation-driven development.

To meet these requirements, and in keeping with the goals set out in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, we have set forth the main targets for economic and social development in 2015 as follows:

——保持經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定增長。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)期增長7%左右。主要考慮:這一速度適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài),反映現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟增長潛力,契合市場預(yù)期,經(jīng)過努力是可以實現(xiàn)的。同時,根據(jù)近幾年經(jīng)濟增長、結(jié)構(gòu)變動與就業(yè)增加之間的關(guān)系,7%左右的經(jīng)濟增長,能夠帶動1000萬人以上的城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)。實際工作中,依靠促改革、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),努力爭取更好的結(jié)果。

- Ensuring that the economy grows steadily

GDP is projected to grow by approximately 7%. In setting this objective, we have mainly taken the following into account: This growth rate accommodates the new normal in economic development, reflects China's current potential for economic growth, is in line with market expectations, and can be achieved with hard work. At the same time, the recent few years' correlation between economic growth and structural changes on the one hand and increases in employment on the other hand shows that an economic growth of around 7% would help create more than 10 million urban jobs. We can do better than this if we promote reform and structural adjustments through practical work.

——價格總水平基本穩(wěn)定。居民消費價格漲幅預(yù)期3%左右。主要考慮:國際大宗商品價格可能低位徘徊,國內(nèi)重要商品供給充裕,部分工業(yè)領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)能過剩和需求疲弱的矛盾相互交織,價格總水平將延續(xù)偏弱走勢,同時為價格改革預(yù)留了空間。

- Maintaining the basic stability of overall prices

The CPI is expected to increase by around 3%. In setting this objective, we have mainly taken the following into account: The prices of major commodities in the international market may continue to remain low, there is an ample supply of main commodities at home, some manufacturing industries are suffering from a combination of overcapacity and sluggish demand, and there will be continuing weakness in the overall level of prices. In addition, we have also set this target to leave space for price reform.

——經(jīng)濟提質(zhì)增效取得新進展。促進創(chuàng)新的體制機制逐步健全,研發(fā)投入穩(wěn)步增加。戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)增加值占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比重繼續(xù)提高,傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)加快改造升級。新型城鎮(zhèn)化積極推進,區(qū)域發(fā)展協(xié)同性增強。單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值能耗和單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放量均下降3.1%以上,化學(xué)需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放量分別下降2%、2%、3%和5%左右。

- Improving the quality and performance of the economy

The systems and mechanisms for promoting innovation will be gradually improved, and R&D spending will be steadily increased. The contribution of the value-added of strategic emerging industries and the service sector to GDP will continue to increase, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries will be accelerated. The new type of urbanization will be carried out vigorously, and development between different regions will be better coordinated. Both energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be cut by at least 3.1%. Chemical oxygen demand will be reduced by around 2%, ammonia nitrogen emissions by around 2%, sulfur dioxide emissions by around 3%, and nitrogen oxide emissions by around 5%.

——民生福祉繼續(xù)增加。城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)1000萬人以上,城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率4.5%以內(nèi)。居民收入增長與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展同步,農(nóng)村貧困人口減少1000萬人以上。社會保障制度更加完善,養(yǎng)老、醫(yī)療等社會保障覆蓋面繼續(xù)擴大,保障水平逐步提高。教育、衛(wèi)生、文化等基本公共服務(wù)均等化持續(xù)推進。人口自然增長率6.5‰以內(nèi)。

- Continuing to improve the standard of living

More than 10 million urban jobs will be created, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within 4.5%. Personal income will increase in step with economic development, and the rural population living in poverty will be cut by at least 10 million. The social security system will be improved, the coverage of old-age, medical, and other social security services will continue to expand, and the level of social security benefits will increase gradually. We will strive to make continued progress in making access to education, healthcare, cultural services, and other basic public services more equitable. The natural population growth rate will be kept under 6.5 per thousand.

——國際收支狀況保持基本平衡。外貿(mào)進出口總額增長6%左右,一般貿(mào)易、服務(wù)貿(mào)易比重提高,利用外資規(guī)模大體穩(wěn)定,對外直接投資保持較快增長。

- Keeping the equilibrium in the balance of payments

Total imports and exports will increase by around 6%, general trade and trade in services will account for more of foreign trade, foreign investment utilized will remain stable overall, and outward foreign direct investment will continue to grow rapidly.

實現(xiàn)上述目標(biāo),做好2015年經(jīng)濟工作,必須堅持宏觀政策要穩(wěn)、微觀政策要活、社會政策要托底,統(tǒng)籌穩(wěn)增長、促改革、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、惠民生、防風(fēng)險,繼續(xù)創(chuàng)新完善宏觀調(diào)控思路和方式,保持政策連續(xù)性和穩(wěn)定性,加強宏觀政策之間的協(xié)調(diào)配合,形成政策合力。To achieve these targets and make our economic work for 2015 a success, we must ensure that the macro policies are stable, micro policies are flexible, and social policies meet people's basic needs. We must make coordinated efforts to ensure steady growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve the standard of living, and guard against risks. We must also continue to make innovations in and improve the way we exercise regulation at the macro level, ensure the continuity and stability of policies, and make sure that macro policies are further coordinated and work together to create synergy.
積極的財政政策要加力增效。今年擬安排全國財政赤字1.62萬億元,比去年增加2700億元,赤字率約2.3%,其中中央財政赤字1.12萬億元,地方財政赤字5000億元。此外,安排地方政府適當(dāng)發(fā)行專項債券。政策重點:一是繼續(xù)實行結(jié)構(gòu)性減稅、落實普遍性降費。將營改增范圍擴大到建筑業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、金融業(yè)和生活服務(wù)業(yè)等領(lǐng)域。落實好小微企業(yè)稅收減免政策。二是調(diào)整優(yōu)化財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)。重點向“三農(nóng)”、民生、環(huán)保等領(lǐng)域傾斜,向老少邊窮地區(qū)和重點生態(tài)功能區(qū)傾斜,加強對“三農(nóng)”和小微企業(yè)融資擔(dān)保等支持。堅持厲行節(jié)約,從嚴(yán)控制一般性支出。三是切實提高財政資金使用效益。創(chuàng)新財政資金使用方式,加大國庫現(xiàn)金管理操作力度,盤活用好國庫存量資金。

We will increase the vigor and effectiveness of our proactive fiscal policies. The government budget deficit for 2015 is projected to be 1.62 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 270 billion yuan compared to last year, resulting in a deficit to GDP ratio of around 2.3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit is 1.12 trillion yuan, and the remaining 500 billion yuan is from local government deficit. In addition, we will allow local governments to issue an appropriate amount of special bonds. Our fiscal policies will be focused on the following areas:

First, we will continue to make structural tax reductions and cut fees across the board. We will extend the trials of replacing business tax with VAT to the construction, real estate, financial, and consumer service industries. We will also make sure that the tax reduction and exemption policies for small and micro enterprises are well implemented.

Second, we will improve the structure of expenditures. This will be done by giving high priority to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers; people's wellbeing; environmental protection; old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, border areas, and poor areas; and key eco-functional zones, and by increasing support for financing guarantee for agriculture, rural areas, farmers, and small and micro businesses. We will continue to be economical and strictly control regular expenditures.

Third, we will utilize government funds more efficiently. We will make innovations in the way we use government funds, increase the intensity of treasury cash management, and put treasury funds on hand to good use.

穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策要松緊適度。今年廣義貨幣(M2)預(yù)期增長12%左右,實際執(zhí)行中可根據(jù)需要略高一些。適時適度預(yù)調(diào)微調(diào),加強定向調(diào)控、監(jiān)管協(xié)調(diào)、預(yù)期管理,保持流動性合理充裕。政策重點:一是有效降低實體經(jīng)濟融資成本。綜合運用數(shù)量型、價格型調(diào)控手段,引導(dǎo)金融機構(gòu)降低貸款利率,促進市場利率處于合理水平。二是支持經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和轉(zhuǎn)型升級。綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具,引導(dǎo)金融機構(gòu)加大對小微企業(yè)、“三農(nóng)”、中西部地區(qū)以及企業(yè)兼并重組的信貸支持。堅持區(qū)別對待、分類施策,加大對企業(yè)債務(wù)重組支持力度。三是有效防控和化解金融風(fēng)險。加強對房地產(chǎn)、地方政府性債務(wù)、影子銀行、互保聯(lián)保等領(lǐng)域和交叉性金融產(chǎn)品的監(jiān)管,守住不發(fā)生區(qū)域性系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險的底線。四是穩(wěn)步推進利率市場化改革,完善人民幣匯率形成機制。擴大金融機構(gòu)負(fù)債產(chǎn)品市場化定價范圍,完善中央銀行利率調(diào)控框架。增強人民幣匯率雙向浮動彈性,保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩(wěn)定。
(注:文中M2為M右下角加2)

We will implement a prudent monetary policy that is neither too loose nor too tight. This year, the money supply M2 is forecasted to grow by around 12%, but may be adjusted to a higher level to meet practical needs. We will carry out fine-tuning at an appropriate time and to an appropriate degree; strengthen targeted regulation, coordinated supervision, and management of expectations; and maintain reasonably ample liquidity. Our monetary policy priorities will be as follows:

First, we will effectively lower financing costs in the real economy. We will apply a combination of quantitative and price-based regulatory tools to guide financial institutions toward lowering their interest rates on loans, so that interest rates in the market move toward an appropriate level.

Second, we will support economic restructuring, transformation, and upgrading. We will use a combination of monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in increasing their credit support for small and micro businesses, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, the central and western regions, and SOE mergers and reorganizations. We will give stronger support to enterprise debt restructuring by applying policies tailored to their specific situations and types of debt.

Third, we will effectively prevent, control, and defuse financial risks. We will tighten oversight over the real estate market, local government debt, shadow banking, mutual guarantee and guarantee chains, and cross-market financial products, and ensure that no systemic or regional financial risks occur.

Fourth, we will steadily liberalize interest rates and improve the mechanisms for determining RMB exchange rate. We will allow the pricing of more debt products of financial institutions to be market-based and improve the central bank's framework of adjusting interest rates. We will allow the RMB exchange rate to float more freely, while keeping it basically stable at an appropriate, balanced level.

政策間協(xié)同聯(lián)動形成合力。堅持需求管理和供給管理并重,把產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和競爭政策有機結(jié)合起來,充分發(fā)揮財政政策、貨幣政策的主要手段作用,加強消費、投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)、價格、區(qū)域、土地、環(huán)保等政策手段的協(xié)調(diào)配合。一是落實進一步擴大消費充分發(fā)揮消費基礎(chǔ)作用的政策措施,促進居民收入合理增長,培育壯大消費熱點,優(yōu)化消費環(huán)境。二是健全政府公共投資體系,優(yōu)化政府投資使用方向和方式,加強預(yù)算內(nèi)投資與開發(fā)性和政策性金融、債券、基金、保險等資金的協(xié)調(diào)配合,吸引和帶動社會投資。三是著眼提升產(chǎn)業(yè)核心競爭力,更加注重普惠激勵、清除障礙、加強監(jiān)管,強化產(chǎn)業(yè)布局和規(guī)劃引導(dǎo),加強質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和品牌建設(shè),建立健全產(chǎn)能評價和退出機制,完善有利于現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)體系發(fā)展的體制機制。四是加快推進價格改革,大幅縮小政府定價范圍,充分發(fā)揮價格杠桿作用,通過目標(biāo)價格改革試點探索完善農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格形成機制,推行差別價格和階梯價格政策,強化價格行為監(jiān)管和反壟斷執(zhí)法,促進市場主體公平競爭。五是完善區(qū)域政策體系,突出分類指導(dǎo),縮小政策單元,提高政策精準(zhǔn)性,完善區(qū)域互動和對口支援機制,促進基本公共服務(wù)均等化和區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。六是強化土地利用計劃管理,創(chuàng)新政策體制,盤活存量建設(shè)用地,繼續(xù)實行更加嚴(yán)格的耕地保護制度和更加嚴(yán)格的節(jié)約集約用地制度。七是規(guī)范節(jié)能節(jié)地節(jié)水、環(huán)境、技術(shù)、安全等市場準(zhǔn)入標(biāo)準(zhǔn),強化節(jié)能評估審查和環(huán)境影響評價,加大對節(jié)能環(huán)保領(lǐng)域的資金和政策支持力度,不斷改善生態(tài)環(huán)境質(zhì)量。

We will ensure our policies are well coordinated and function together to create synergy. We will manage supply and demand with equal importance, link together industrial and competition policies, fully allow fiscal and monetary policies to play their role as major tools for economic adjustment, and better coordinate policies for consumer spending, investment, industries, pricing, regions, land, and environmental protection.

First, we will carry out all the policies and measures for expanding consumer spending and getting it to fully play the fundamental role in driving economic growth, stimulate reasonable increases in personal income, nurture and expand growth areas in consumer spending, and improve the environment for consumer spending.

Second, we will improve the system of government public investment, optimize where and how government investment is used, enhance coordination and cooperation between budgetary investment on the one hand and developmental and policy-backed finance, bonds, funds, and insurance on the other, and use government investment to attract and guide nongovernmental investment.

Third, in order to raise the core competitiveness of our industries, we will attach greater importance to giving inclusive incentives, removing obstacles, and strengthening regulation; improve industrial distribution and strengthen guidance through plans; improve quality, standards, and brand-building; establish a sound mechanism for assessment and exit of production capacity; and improve our institutions and mechanisms to be conducive to the development of a modern industrial system.

Fourth, we will accelerate price reform, significantly narrow the scope of government-set pricing, and get prices to fully play a leveraging role. We will explore ways to improve the pricing mechanism for agricultural products by carrying out the trial reform of guaranteed base prices, and we will implement policies of differentiated and tiered pricing. We will strengthen price supervision and intensify law enforcement efforts to counter monopolistic pricing in order to ensure fair competition between market players.

Fifth, we will improve our system of regional policies and arrange policies on a smaller geographical scale so that they are more precise and more tailored to specific local situations. We will strengthen interaction between regions, improve the system of providing assistance to less developed regions by pairing them with more developed regions, ensure basic public services are more equitably available between regions, and make development between regions more balanced.

Sixth, we will strengthen planning and management of land utilization, make innovations in policies and institutions, make good use of the existing land designated for construction, and continue implementing still stricter systems for protecting arable land and ensuring more economical and intensive use of land.

Seventh, we will set unified standards for market access in terms of energy, land, and water conservation, environmental impact, technology, and safety; strengthen evaluations of energy efficiency and environmental impact; offer more financial and policy support to areas of energy conservation and environmental protection; and keep improving the quality of the ecosystem and environment.

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