一、國家安全形勢 | I. National Security Situation |
當今時代,世界多極化、經(jīng)濟全球化、社會信息化深入發(fā)展,國際社會日益成為你中有我、我中有你的命運共同體,和平、發(fā)展、合作、共贏成為不可阻擋的時代潮流。 | In today's world, the global trends toward multi-polarity and economic globalization are intensifying, and an information society is rapidly coming into being. Countries are increasingly bound together in a community of shared destiny. Peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit have become an irresistible tide of the times. |
國際形勢深刻演變,國際力量對比、全球治理體系結(jié)構(gòu)、亞太地緣戰(zhàn)略格局和國際經(jīng)濟、科技、軍事競爭格局正在發(fā)生歷史性變化。維護和平的力量上升,制約戰(zhàn)爭的因素增多,在可預見的未來,世界大戰(zhàn)打不起來,總體和平態(tài)勢可望保持。但是,霸權(quán)主義、強權(quán)政治和新干涉主義將有新的發(fā)展,各種國際力量圍繞權(quán)力和權(quán)益再分配的斗爭趨于激烈,恐怖主義活動日益活躍,民族宗教矛盾、邊界領土爭端等熱點復雜多變,小戰(zhàn)不斷、沖突不止、危機頻發(fā)仍是一些地區(qū)的常態(tài),世界依然面臨現(xiàn)實和潛在的局部戰(zhàn)爭威脅。 | Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields. The forces for world peace are on the rise, so are the factors against war. In the foreseeable future, a world war is unlikely, and the international situation is expected to remain generally peaceful. There are, however, new threats from hegemonism, power politics and neo-interventionism. International competition for the redistribution of power, rights and interests is tending to intensify. Terrorist activities are growing increasingly worrisome. Hotspot issues, such as ethnic, religious, border and territorial disputes, are complex and volatile. Small-scale wars, conflicts and crises are recurrent in some regions. Therefore, the world still faces both immediate and potential threats of local wars. |
中國發(fā)展仍將處于可以大有作為的重要戰(zhàn)略機遇期,外部環(huán)境總體有利。國家綜合國力、核心競爭力、抵御風險能力顯著增強,國際地位和國際影響力顯著提高,人民生活顯著改善,社會大局保持穩(wěn)定。作為一個發(fā)展中大國,中國仍然面臨多元復雜的安全威脅,遇到的外部阻力和挑戰(zhàn)逐步增多,生存安全問題和發(fā)展安全問題、傳統(tǒng)安全威脅和非傳統(tǒng)安全威脅相互交織,維護國家統(tǒng)一、維護領土完整、維護發(fā)展利益的任務艱巨繁重。 | With a generally favorable external environment, China will remain in an important period of strategic opportunities for its development, a period in which much can be achieved. China's comprehensive national strength, core competitiveness and risk-resistance capacity are notably increasing, and China enjoys growing international standing and influence. Domestically, the Chinese people's standard of living has remarkably improved, and Chinese society remains stable. China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests. |
隨著世界經(jīng)濟和戰(zhàn)略重心加速向亞太地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移,美國持續(xù)推進亞太“再平衡”戰(zhàn)略,強化其地區(qū)軍事存在和軍事同盟體系。日本積極謀求擺脫戰(zhàn)后體制,大幅調(diào)整軍事安全政策,國家發(fā)展走向引起地區(qū)國家高度關注。個別海上鄰國在涉及中國領土主權(quán)和海洋權(quán)益問題上采取挑釁性舉動,在非法“占據(jù)”的中方島礁上加強軍事存在。一些域外國家也極力插手南海事務,個別國家對華保持高頻度??盏纸鼈刹欤I戏较蚓S權(quán)斗爭將長期存在。一些陸地領土爭端也依然存在。朝鮮半島和東北亞地區(qū)局勢存在諸多不穩(wěn)定和不確定因素。地區(qū)恐怖主義、分裂主義、極端主義活動猖獗,也對中國周邊安全穩(wěn)定帶來不利影響。 | As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its "rebalancing" strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region. On the issues concerning China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China's reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China's periphery. |
臺灣問題事關國家統(tǒng)一和長遠發(fā)展,國家統(tǒng)一是中華民族走向偉大復興的歷史必然。近年來兩岸關系保持和平發(fā)展良好勢頭,但影響臺海局勢穩(wěn)定的根源并未消除,“臺獨”分裂勢力及其分裂活動仍然是兩岸關系和平發(fā)展的最大威脅。維護國家政治安全和社會穩(wěn)定的任務艱巨繁重,“東突”“藏獨”分裂勢力危害嚴重,特別是“東突”暴力恐怖活動威脅升級,反華勢力圖謀制造“顏色革命”,國家安全和社會穩(wěn)定面臨更多挑戰(zhàn)。隨著國家利益不斷拓展,國際和地區(qū)局勢動蕩、恐怖主義、海盜活動、重大自然災害和疾病疫情等都可能對國家安全構(gòu)成威脅,海外能源資源、戰(zhàn)略通道安全以及海外機構(gòu)、人員和資產(chǎn)安全等海外利益安全問題凸顯。 | The Taiwan issue bears on China's reunification and long-term development, and reunification is an inevitable trend in the course of national rejuvenation. In recent years, cross-Taiwan Straits relations have sustained a sound momentum of peaceful development, but the root cause of instability has not yet been removed, and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and their activities are still the biggest threat to the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations. Further, China faces a formidable task to maintain political security and social stability. Separatist forces for "East Turkistan independence" and "Tibet independence" have inflicted serious damage, particularly with escalating violent terrorist activities by "East Turkistan independence" forces. Besides, anti-China forces have never given up their attempt to instigate a "color revolution" in this country. Consequently, China faces more challenges in terms of national security and social stability. With the growth of China's national interests, its national security is more vulnerable to international and regional turmoil, terrorism, piracy, serious natural disasters and epidemics, and the security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources, strategic sea lines of communication (SLOCs), as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad, has become an imminent issue. |
世界新軍事革命深入發(fā)展,武器裝備遠程精確化、智能化、隱身化、無人化趨勢明顯,太空和網(wǎng)絡空間成為各方戰(zhàn)略競爭新的制高點,戰(zhàn)爭形態(tài)加速向信息化戰(zhàn)爭演變。世界主要國家積極調(diào)整國家安全戰(zhàn)略和防務政策,加緊推進軍事轉(zhuǎn)型,重塑軍事力量體系。軍事技術(shù)和戰(zhàn)爭形態(tài)的革命性變化,對國際政治軍事格局產(chǎn)生重大影響,對中國軍事安全帶來新的嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。 | The world revolution in military affairs (RMA) is proceeding to a new stage. Long-range, precise, smart, stealthy and unmanned weapons and equipment are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Outer space and cyber space have become new commanding heights in strategic competition among all parties. The form of war is accelerating its evolution to informationization. World major powers are actively adjusting their national security strategies and defense policies, and speeding up their military transformation and force restructuring. The aforementioned revolutionary changes in military technologies and the form of war have not only had a significant impact on the international political and military landscapes, but also posed new and severe challenges to China's military security. |
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